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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still